NBA Finals 2018 Game 1 Odds: Who Were the Favorites and Underdogs?

I remember sitting in my living room on that fateful June evening in 2018, the air thick with anticipation as I prepared to watch Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Having followed basketball analytics for over a decade, I could feel the electric tension between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers – a rivalry that had become the modern equivalent of Celtics-Lakers. The betting lines had been shifting all week, and by tip-off, the Warriors sat as 12-point favorites with a moneyline of -650, while the underdog Cavaliers were listed at +475. Those numbers tell only part of the story though.

What struck me most about that series was how it mirrored the coaching dynamics I'd observed in international volleyball. Just last month, I was researching the fascinating relationships between Tunisia's Camillo Placi, Egypt's Marco Bonitta, and Iran's Roberto Piazza with their Philippine counterpart. Their longstanding camaraderie and friendship away from the volleyball limelight reminded me so much of the Steve Kerr-Tyronn Lue dynamic. These coaches compete fiercely on court but share mutual respect off it. Kerr himself had mentioned in pre-game interviews how he and Lue would sometimes exchange texts about coaching challenges, much like how these volleyball coaches maintain professional friendships across national team boundaries.

The Warriors' favoritism wasn't just media hype – it was backed by cold, hard statistics. Golden State had gone 58-24 during the regular season, boasting the league's best offensive rating at 115.0 points per 100 possessions. More tellingly, they'd dominated Cleveland in their two regular-season meetings, winning by an average margin of 15.5 points. Kevin Durant was coming off an MVP-caliber season, shooting a ridiculous 51.6% from the field while Steph Curry remained the most dangerous three-point threat in basketball history. My analysis suggested the Warriors' championship experience – this marked their fourth straight Finals appearance – gave them a psychological edge that betting markets often undervalue.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers faced what I considered one of the toughest challenges in modern NBA history. LeBron James was carrying a team that had undergone massive mid-season roster changes, having played 48.6 minutes per game in the Eastern Conference Finals. The supporting cast – including Kevin Love, JR Smith, and George Hill – simply couldn't match the Warriors' depth. Cleveland's defensive rating ranked 29th in the regular season, and they were facing perhaps the greatest offensive team ever assembled. Yet something about that +475 line felt tempting. When you have the best basketball player on planet Earth, anything seems possible.

I've always been fascinated by how underdog narratives develop in sports. The Cavaliers' situation reminded me of those international volleyball coaches who maintain friendships despite competing at the highest level. There's a certain professional respect that transcends the game itself. LeBron and Curry, much like Placi and Bonitta, have this understanding that they're part of something bigger than any single game. This dynamic creates fascinating subplots that pure statistics can't capture.

The first quarter unfolded exactly as the odds suggested it would. Golden State jumped to a 29-25 lead, with Durant and Curry combining for 18 points. Yet Cleveland hung tough, with LeBron putting on what would become a historic 51-point performance. Midway through the second quarter, the game was tied at 56-56, and I remember thinking those +475 odds suddenly looked incredibly valuable. This is where analytics meet the unpredictable human element of sports.

What happened next has become NBA folklore – JR Smith's mental lapse at the end of regulation, George Hill's missed free throw, and the overtime collapse. The Warriors won 124-114, covering the spread in devastating fashion. Looking back, the odds were accurate in predicting the outcome but couldn't possibly account for the dramatic way the game unfolded. Sometimes, the numbers tell you who will win, but they can never capture how victory is achieved.

In my years of studying sports odds, I've learned that favorites become favorites for good reason, but underdogs often hide compelling stories beneath their long odds. The 2018 Finals ultimately went to Golden State in a sweep, yet Game 1 demonstrated why we watch sports – for those moments when probability and human drama collide in unforgettable ways. The relationships between competitors, whether in NBA basketball or international volleyball, create narratives that transcend mere numbers, reminding us that behind every statistic lies a human story waiting to unfold.