PBA Season Start: Everything You Need to Know Before Tip-Off

The moment I saw the PBA schedule drop, I felt that familiar mix of anticipation and anxiety – it’s like waiting for the first rain after a long dry spell. For fans like me, the start of a new season isn’t just about basketball; it’s about narratives, rivalries, and that electric feeling when the ball finally goes up. But this year, there’s something different hanging in the air. Maybe it’s the lingering echo from Gilas Pilipinas’ recent struggles, that 0-2 record against New Zealand that left everyone a bit raw. I remember reading that post-game quote from the Kiwi camp: “It just seems to be that's the way the game has been going for us lately.” It hit hard because, frankly, that’s a sentiment that could easily apply to a few PBA squads heading into this new campaign. You start to wonder if certain teams are carrying that same psychological baggage – that feeling that the ball just isn’t bouncing their way, no matter what they try. It’s a tough mindset to shake, and it’s going to be one of the most intriguing subplots as the season unfolds.

Let’s talk about the teams that are staring down that particular barrel. Take the NorthPort Batang Pier, for instance. They finished the last conference with a disappointing 4-7 record, and you could see the frustration building. They have the pieces, no doubt, but they just couldn’t string together consistent wins. It felt like every close game slipped through their fingers in the final two minutes. I’ve been watching this league for over a decade, and I can tell you that kind of pattern is hard to break. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Players start pressing, coaches overthink rotations, and suddenly, a 5-point deficit with 90 seconds left feels like an insurmountable mountain. That’s the “way the game has been going” for them, and it’s their biggest opponent before they even step on the court for tip-off. They need a statement win early, something to reset that collective confidence. On the other side of the coin, you have a team like the Magnolia Hotshots. They’re always a tough out, a well-coached unit that prides itself on defense. But last season, their offense sputtered at the worst possible times. They shot a collective 31% from three-point range in their elimination round losses. When your shots aren’t falling, the game becomes a grind, and every possession feels heavier than the last. That’s the kind of momentum swing the PBA season start is all about. It’s a clean slate. It’s a chance for these teams to rewrite their story, to change the “way the game has been going.”

Of course, the narrative isn’t just about overcoming adversity; it’s also about the teams poised to dominate. I’m personally bullish on the San Miguel Beermen. With June Mar Fajoner back at full strength—or let’s say, at 85% of his dominant self—and CJ Perez looking like he’s about to have an MVP-caliber year, they are the team to beat. Their roster depth is just insane; they can legitimately go 10-deep without a significant drop in quality. I’d argue they have a 65% chance of making the finals in the season-opening conference, and that’s a conservative estimate. But here’s where that Gilas parallel comes back. Even a powerhouse like San Miguel isn’t immune to a bad stretch. Remember a couple of seasons ago when they started 1-4? The entire basketball community was in shock. It just seemed like the ball wouldn’t go in. It happens. The true test of a champion isn’t avoiding those slumps, but navigating through them. That’s the beauty of a new PBA season. It resets everything. A team like TNT Tropang Giga, which underperformed massively last year, winning only 9 of their 18 games, now has a chance to hit the ground running. They’ve made some interesting off-season moves, and I, for one, am excited to see if their new import can be the difference-maker they desperately need.

From a tactical standpoint, I expect this season to be faster. The league-wide average pace last season was about 92 possessions per 48 minutes, but I’m betting we see that climb to 95 or even 96. Teams are realizing that playing in transition covers up a lot of half-court execution flaws. It’s harder to get bogged down by missed shots and offensive droughts when you’re constantly pushing the tempo. This shift could be a godsend for the teams stuck in that negative feedback loop. A faster game means more possessions, which means a single turnover or a missed shot carries less weight. It can help break that “here we go again” mentality. You won’t have time to dwell on the last play because you’re already sprinting back on defense or leaking out for a fast break. It’s a psychological reset on every possession. I’m also keeping a close eye on the three-point line. The league average has hovered around 33% for years, but I have a feeling we’re on the verge of a shooting explosion. The younger players coming in are just more proficient from deep. If a couple of teams can consistently shoot 36-37%, it will completely warp defenses and open up the game in a way we haven’t seen in the PBA.

So, as we count down the hours to the first jump ball, my advice is to look beyond the star players and the pre-season predictions. Pay attention to the team huddles during the first timeout. Watch the body language when a team goes on an 8-0 run against them. That’s where you’ll see if the ghosts of last season—or, in Gilas’ case, recent international play—have been exorcised. The PBA season is a marathon, not a sprint, but the first few games set the tone. They determine whether a team starts building a positive identity or continues fighting the same old demons. For me, the most compelling story won’t necessarily be who wins the championship in six months, but which team manages to change “the way the game has been going” for them, starting from the very first tip-off. That’s the real drama of a new season, and I, for one, can’t wait to see it unfold.